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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a race that will decide who governs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd