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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest shock.

But this year's field is profoundly unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime also-rans improving in unison. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's competing with five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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